Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 9:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 30 kt
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Brazil's trailing 6-month ferroniobium export volume exceeds 80 kt on December 31, 2026.
- What is being measured: Cumulative Brazilian exports of ferroniobium (HS 7202.93) to all global destinations, in kilotonnes, for the 6-month period ending 3 months before December 31, 2026.
- The 3-month lag ensures MDIC/Siscomex data has been published for all months in the window.
- Measurement window:
- Settlement June 30: October (prior year) – March (current year) total
- Settlement December 31: April – September (current year) total
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt? resolve?
- Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Brazil's trailing 6-month ferroniobium export volume exceeds 80 kt on December 31, 2026.