Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 23, 10:30 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
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Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiNobel Prize in Economics 2026
Kalshi2026 Nobel Physics winner?
KalshiRules
Resolves positively immediately upon award, or negatively after the first round of Prizes awarded after his death.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? resolve?
- Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2200.
- How is Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves positively immediately upon award, or negatively after the first round of Prizes awarded after his death.