Current community forecast
Yes 90.1%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 23, 12:48 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which price will Apple stock (AAPL) hold above before staying below it, for a full week?
Manifold MarketsWill any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
Manifold MarketsNVDA stock price exceeds AAPL stock price before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Last price: 2026-Sep-04 $319.97
- (will try to update every Friday after Nasdaq close)
- Resolves YES if AAPL trades >= $500 without having first traded <= $50
- Resolves NO if AAPL trades <= $50 without having first traded >= $500
- during any regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session after market creation (2023-Feb-12).
- Will extend closing date as needed.
Open markets
Equities
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.99-1.0pt16.7%
- 8,000 to 8,199.99-2.0pt14.7%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9910.8%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.4M
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt77.7%
- Apple+0.7pt13.6%
- Alphabet6.8%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++13.3pt77.9%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.5pt7.7%
- 1T–1.25T-1.3pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 8?
- Down+3.0pt73%
- Up-3.0pt27%
- Total Vol
- $19.6K
- 24h Vol
- $17.5K
- S&P price on Sep 8, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Up or Down - Daily
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- EQT Energy Company (EQT) Up or Down - Daily
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50? resolve?
- Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Last price: 2026-Sep-04 $319.97