Current community forecast
No 81.1%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 24, 4:56 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
- Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive.
- For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks.
- The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
- If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name.
- If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.