Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 9:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Yes 100%+18.9pt
Yes 100%+18.9ptMarket quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$539.4
Liquidity
$5.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$2.9K
Bid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+19.9 pts
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleOct 16, 26, 4:48 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 9:00 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
Yes100%
No0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?
Manifold MarketsWill any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketNasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
KalshiAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRules
As of market creation, Microsoft is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026.
- The Street consensus estimate for Microsoft's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.82 as of market creation.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.82 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
- If Microsoft releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
- If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.