Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMay 21, 26, 1:36 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic has a profitable quarter in 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRules
Market will be resolved as YES if Anthropic reports a net profit after taking into account training costs in 2028.
- More precisely, if Anthropic releases a financial statement covering the 2028 fiscal year, and according to that statement their net profit after accounting for model training costs is positive.
- The market will be resolved as NO if Anthropic reports a net loss after accounting for model training costs in 2028 fiscal year.
- If they report a net loss in one or more quarters, resolution will be based on cumulative net profit over the course of all four quarters.
- If no official public financial report detailing Anthropic's profitability in 2028 is available by June 1, 2029, the market will be resolved as N/A. Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Profitability means net profit after subtracting all usual expenses (operating expenses, interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization) and model training costs.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic be profitable in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic be profitable in 2028? resolve?
- Will Anthropic be profitable in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2029.
- How is Will Anthropic be profitable in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market will be resolved as YES if Anthropic reports a net profit after taking into account training costs in 2028.