Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffAI1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.2%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 26, 1:09 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.