Current community forecast
No 71.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 26, 10:45 AM UTCOct 15, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsTop coding AI this month (DeepSWE)
KalshiWho will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?
Manifold MarketsWill Grok 5 beat the best human team at League of Legends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Leaderboard: https://www.aicrowd.com/challenges/arc-white-box-estimation-challenge-2026/leaderboards?round=phase-2
- Winning is defined as getting 1st place in the final phase (phase 2) of the competition linked above. "1st place" here means on the final private evaluation the decides the prize money.
- "Marius Binner" is defined as this account: https://www.aicrowd.com/participants/marius_binner