Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?
One-OffHealth & MedicineRegulation4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75.5%
Forecasters
50
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 23, 8:39 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Blizzard games still be legally available in Mainland China at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
Manifold MarketsWill messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
KalshiWill 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
KalshiHow much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
KalshiRules
"MDMA-like" refers to behavioral effects, rather than chemical similarity.
- I can see a world where both "nontoxic" and "MDMA-like" become disputed criteria.
- Since I don't know much about pharmacology (or recreational drug use, lol), I may defer to a random selection of people I know to help resolve this market.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030? resolve?
- Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "MDMA-like" refers to behavioral effects, rather than chemical similarity.