Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 68.2% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030? resolve?

Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030, a paper published in Nature or Science lists an AI system (not a person) as first or lead author, or the journal's editorial note describes the AI as the paper's primary author.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+17.8pt48%
• Claude-14.4pt45.2%
• ChatGPT-0.4pt6.1%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.9M

24h Vol

$184.9K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.2pt95%
• December 15,+1.0pt93%
• November 30,-2.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt27.7%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.7pt23.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.7pt15.8%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+16.0pt50.5%
• Anthropic-14.5pt41.4%
• OpenAI-0.2pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+3.1pt98%
• Anthropic-3.0pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• $1.5T–$1.75T+3.8pt21%
• <$1T-8.3pt21%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+0.6pt19%

+5 more outcomes

• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?