Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 12, 26, 1:46 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030, all COVID-19 vaccines lose regulatory approval, marketing authorization, or emergency use authorization (EUA) for commercial distribution in the United States, leaving no COVID-19 vaccine approved or authorized for sale or administration.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolution Details:
- "Pulled off the market" requires that no COVID-19 vaccine formulation (mRNA, protein subunit, viral vector, or other platform) retains active FDA approval or EUA for any demographic group in the U.S. The standard seasonal phase-out or replacement of older strain formulations with updated variant-matched vaccines does not trigger a YES resolution, provided at least one updated COVID-19 vaccine remains approved/authorized and commercially available.
