Will all mRNA type vaccines be abolished and pulled off market before 2040?
RegulationOne-OffHealth & Medicine13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.7%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 26, 4:43 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, prior to January 1, 2040 (12:00 AM UTC), all messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines are completely abolished, banned, or withdrawn from commercial availability across major regulatory jurisdictions (specifically including the US Food and Drug Administration [FDA] and the European Medicines Agency [EMA]).
- Specifically:
- YES: Prior to January 1, 2040, all market authorizations, licenses, or emergency use authorizations for mRNA-based vaccines are formally revoked or banned worldwide or across major regulators (FDA and EMA), leaving zero mRNA vaccines legally available for administration.
- NO: On or before December 31, 2039, at least one mRNA vaccine retains active regulatory approval, authorization, or licensure and remains commercially available in at least one major regulatory jurisdiction, as verifiable through official registries such as the FDA Vaccine Products List or the EMA Medicines Database.
- Official regulatory publications from the FDA, EMA, and World Health Organization (WHO) will serve as the primary sources of truth.
