Current community forecast
No 92.2%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 7, 23, 2:22 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By the end of this century, will the dominant form of intelligent life on Earth be digital or biological?
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if AI wipes out all biological life on Earth before the year 2100.
- Presumably in that case the AI will have to be kind enough to posthumously resolve this market on our behalf, but in the meantime Manifold loans should give you some incentive to bet on this market.
- This market resolves NO if the AI stops short of wiping out all biological life on Earth.
- If there's still a single amoeba, extremophile, mite, lichen, protist, or tardigrade still clinging to life somwhere on January 1st in the year of our Lord 2100, this market resolves NO.
- Also if something other than AI wipes out all life on Earth--such as a super asteroid or a supernova or a black hole or a giant alien space laser (the aliens being non artificial intelligences)--this market resolves NO.
- To be clear, if I (or an heir with my Manifold password) is still alive on January 1st, 2100.
