What are the current odds for Will AI video become indistinguishable from reality by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81.8% as of October 21, 2026.

Will AI video become indistinguishable from reality by 2030?

One-OffAI Tech3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 81.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Jun 30, 24, 2:13 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.