What are the current odds for Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 91.1% as of October 30, 2026.

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 91.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 23 hours ago

Stale

Aug 19, 23, 5:32 PM UTCAug 19, 28, 6:29 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

"It can know all the medicine in the world but until it has a license, the AI cannot prescribe anything"

We are aware that there exist a huge amount of regulation when it comes to the medical industry.
Some people believe that the license itself will decrease in value.
Perhaps people will just go to the doctor less when they feel like even without a license, the AI's advice is useful enough to avoid paying for the visit.
Some smart wearables are already capable of detecting a potential Covid infection ~5 days before it starts.