Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 2:59 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN.
- If ambiguous, I will personally message the named people for them to resolve this market on their own.
- If I couldn't reach out to them, or they somehow disagree with each other, I will resolve N/A. I may modify this market's description within 48 hours after market creation
- context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gko3r6hvkSXrbDFPD/ai-for-agent-foundations-etc?commentId=JgyrFpenpLukwrqhq
