Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80.3%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 24, 3:14 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
PolymarketWill AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+43.5pt67.9%
- September 24+1.0pt12.3%
- September 23+0.9pt6.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $251K
- 24h Vol
- $205.2K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-2.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-1.0pt18%
- Donald Trump10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.2pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt14.6%
- Gemini-0.8pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.1pt98%
- Google-0.3pt1%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic-1.0pt69.6%
- OpenAI+3.5pt12.8%
- Google-3.0pt9.8%
+12 more outcomes
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.