Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64.3%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 23, 11:07 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question resolves YES if by the end of 2026, I (Peter Wildeford) subjectively think that an AI system with no human accountant involved could legally and practically do my taxes with roughly the same level of accuracy as my current human accountant in 2023 for the same or less cost as my current human accountant.
- I do not need to actually use this AI system in order for this to resolve YES.
- To resolve YES, I will require the amount of work to interface with this AI system to be the same as it is with my current human accountant in 2023 - that is, I still need to provide all the PDFs with the relevant inputs (e.g., all my 1099s).
- For the purposes of this question I will assume, even if it is not true as of 2026, that my taxes are exactly the same level of complexity as they are now in 2023 - namely that I am in the US, I work in only one US state/city, I am filing single, I get income from multiple sources (W-2 and 1099s), and I itemize with a few relevant deductions related to homeownership and donating money.
- I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
