Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.6%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 23, 12:38 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
At the time of market creation, AI music models were already able to generate songs of 80 seconds in length that approached the quality of what an average musician could output.
- How long will it be until AI becomes superintelligent at music?
- This market will resolve to YES immediately if a mainstream media outlet publishes an article stating that an AI model has produced a work that is superior to that written by Bach, Beethoven, or Mozart before December 31, 2026.
- The work may be from any genre and may be a type of audio waveform that was not previously known to humans, or which is not possible to create with musical instruments.
- The waveform must be original and may not simply be a superior remix of one of those composers' works.
- It will also resolve to YES if the general public consensus is that AI music is now better than human music in all respects.