Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035??

Manifold Markets prices No at 87.3% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035? resolve?

Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.

How is Will a single company in S&P 500 have a larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2035? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To resolve YES, it is enough that the condition holds at any moment before January 1, 2035, and after June 15, 2024.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5pt31.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.6pt19.4%
• $1.5–$1.75T-4.0pt18.4%

+7 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3M

24h Vol

$134.3K

POLYMARKET

Largest Company end of December 2026?

• NVIDIA+5.0pt56.6%
• Apple-5.5pt42.4%
• Alphabet+0.1pt1%

+5 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+3.5pt58%
• Anthropic-4.2pt42%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+3.0pt92%
• ↑$1.75T+1.5pt82%
• ↑$2.0T+4.5pt70%

+11 more outcomes

KALSHI

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

• 29,500 to 29,999.99+1.0pt8%
• 30,000 to 30,499.996.5%
• 28,500 to 28,999.99+1.0pt

KALSHI

S&P close price end of 2026?

• 7,800 to 7,999.99-2.0pt22.5%
• 7,600 to 7,799.99-1.0pt15.5%
• 8,000 to 8,199.99+1.0pt

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