Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.2%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 24, 7:29 PM UTCMar 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?
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KalshiNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before we get a cure for cancer.
- In the context of this question the threshold for "we get a cure for cancer" is defined as: 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc
- Human venture on Mars questions:
- @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440