Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
AI3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Fabiano Caruana 30.7%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 24, 1:49 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
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PolymarketRules
Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.
- If two players pass the threshold at the same update, will resolve based on who passed the threshold in live ratings first.
- If there is still a tie, then it will resolve based on which tied player has the higher rating.
- Can resolve as someone currently rated 2800 or above in the event that they dip below 2800 in the official (non live) ratings and then passes it again in a later month.
- Resolution date will be extended as needed.
- Rating source: https://ratings.fide.com/
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)?
- Manifold Markets prices Fabiano Caruana at 31% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) resolve?
- Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.