Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Magnus Carlsen 95.9%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 25, 9:40 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
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KalshiRules
Chess ratings are updated monthly by FIDE (International Chess Federation).
- As of January 2025, the named outcome has dominated the top spot for over a decade, though Gukesh Dommaraju has shown remarkable progress recently, becoming World Chess Champion and making significant rating gains in 2024.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official FIDE rating list published for January 2027 (which reflects ratings as of December 31, 2026)
- In case of a tie for the highest rating, all tied players will resolve equally (i.e. 50/50 if the top two are tied)
- If FIDE changes its rating calculation system before the end of 2026, the market will still resolve based on the official FIDE ratings under the new system