Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Other 23.1%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
38
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 24, 7:48 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I have a positive all time Mana profit at any time before & including 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Link: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
- Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The first user to reach 10M mana must achieve this through legitimate profit (as determined by the creator).
