Current community forecast
Other 99%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 19, 26, 3:09 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- Blue Moon Mk 1 Pathfinder is set to launch no earlier than early 2026, with the lander expected to touch down near the Shackleton crater at the Moon's south pole.
- The market resolves to the month in which Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully lands on the lunar surface.
- Resolution will be determined by official Blue Origin announcements and NASA confirmation of a successful landing.
- Successful landing is defined by the spacecraft transmitting data from the surface.
- The mission will demonstrate critical systems, including the BE-7 engine, cryogenic fluid power and propulsion systems, avionics, continuous downlink communications, and precision landing with an accuracy within 100 meters.
