Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
AIManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Google (99%)
Resolved: Dec 1, 2025, 12:06 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastGoogle 99%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
69
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 198 days ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 10:17 PMNov 30, 25, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
OpenAI0%
xAI0%
Anthropic0.9%
Google99%
Meta0%
Alibaba0%
DeepSeek0%
Moonshot AI0%
Other0%
99%
0.9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of November 30th, 2025 11:59PM ET.
- In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-5Ch5LQddE5)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-96p0nLU5A5)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-QcqLtdnQnN)@/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model @/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
- @/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer@/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
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- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)?
- Manifold Markets prices Google at 99% as of February 4, 2026.
- When does Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) resolve?
- Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2025.
- How is Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of November 30th, 2025 11:59PM ET.