Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
AIManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Google
Resolved: Sep 1, 2025, 12:49 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastGoogle 99.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
341
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 197 days ago
StaleJul 1, 25, 5:31 PMAug 31, 25, 6:01 PM
Probability Timeline
OpenAI0%
xAI0.2%
Anthropic0%
Google99.7%
Meta0%
Alibaba0%
DeepSeek0%
Other0%
99.7%
0.2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of August 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
- In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-5Ch5LQddE5)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-96p0nLU5A5)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-spP5uLOAQR)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-QcqLtdnQnN)@/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model @/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
- @/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer@/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)?
- Manifold Markets prices Google at 100% as of February 4, 2026.
- When does Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) resolve?
- Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2025.
- How is Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of August 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
