Which company has best AI model end of October 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
AI
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Google (99%)
Resolved: Nov 3, 2025, 4:06 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
OpenAI0.1%
xAI0.1%
Anthropic0.2%
Google99%
Meta0%
Alibaba0.4%
DeepSeek0.1%
Moonshot AI0%
Other0.1%
Won
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Rules
Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of October 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
- In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
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- @/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer@/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
- @/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
