Which company has best AI model end of September 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)
AI
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Google (97.3%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, 11:11 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Probability Timeline
OpenAI0.1%
xAI0.2%
Anthropic1.3%
Google97.3%
Meta0%
Alibaba0%
DeepSeek1%
Other0%
Won
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Rules
Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of September 30th, 2025 11:59PM ET.
- In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
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