When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
29.0 pts (24h)InflationOne-OffBonds & Treasuries2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore January 1, 2027 54%+29.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+29.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:59 PMJan 1, 29, 2:35 PM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
$40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.
- All of these lead to an inexorable increase and interest rates on US notes, and bonds.
- This market will result in a positive answer if during DAYTIME markets, the yield of the 10 year ticks up above 5% as reported by the CBOE ten year yield symbol ^tnx
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+15.0pt56.4%
- 25 bps increase-12.0pt42.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.1M
- 24h Vol
- $5.4M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $459.7K
- 24h Vol
- $76.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting-7.0pt58.4%
- September Meeting-13.5pt41.6%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-8.5pt63%
- No+8.5pt37%
- Total Vol
- $8.5M
- 24h Vol
- $43.8K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt39.2%
- 0 (0 bps)+3.5pt31.4%
- 2 (50 bps)-2.5pt22.6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- Pause–Pause–Pause+9.0pt40.4%
- Pause–Pause–Cut+1.0pt1.9%
- Pause–Cut–Pause-0.1pt1%
+6 more outcomes
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- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- How high will inflation get this year?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
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- China Annual Inflation 2026
- August Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- FAO Food Price Index in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%??
- Manifold Markets prices Before January 1, 2027 at 54% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? resolve?
- When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: $40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.