When will the first RISUG procedure become commercially available?
RegulationOne-OffHealth & Medicine4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2035 or later 55.2%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 30, 25, 1:25 PM UTCDec 30, 30, 2:21 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill we have AGI before commercially available and viable flying cars???
Manifold MarketsWill all covid vaccines be pulled off the market before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the first year in which the Reversible Inhibition of Sperm Under Guidance (RISUG) procedure becomes commercially available to the general public. "Commercially available" is defined as the procedure being offered by licensed medical practitioners outside of clinical trial settings, with necessary regulatory approvals in place.
- The resolution will be based on official announcements from regulatory bodies or reputable medical institutions confirming the availability of RISUG for public use.
- RISUG is a non-hormonal male contraceptive developed in India, involving an injection into the vas deferens to block sperm transport.
- Clinical trials have demonstrated its efficacy and safety, with a reported 97% success rate in preventing pregnancy.
- As of 2023, RISUG has completed Phase III clinical trials in India and is awaiting regulatory approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI).
