Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 48%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+15.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 8:30 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.
- A "crash" is understood to be a more than 15% downward correction in the market within a week where the Economist (as proxy for good punditry) writes that this is mostly or exclusively due to changing believes in AI and AI-fuelled valuations.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+56.5pt74.1%
- September 23+6.8pt10.2%
- September 24+0.9pt5.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.3K
- 24h Vol
- $224.5K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $120.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.7%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $97.5K
- 24h Vol
- $74.8K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the AI bubble crash??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027 at 48% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does When will the AI bubble crash? resolve?
- When will the AI bubble crash? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is When will the AI bubble crash? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.