Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJul-Dec 2026 43.7%-7.1ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-8.6 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 25, 25, 10:16 PM UTCSep 25, 26, 10:14 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketRules
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.
- Must be a real, new model by SSI — not a white‑labeled/rebranded external LLM.
- Requires third‑party confirmation of the model’s existence and that it is new.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt68.6%
- ChatGPT+2.9pt15.2%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.7M
- 24h Vol
- $144.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+36.2pt72.6%
- September 22-17.6pt10.5%
- No release by September 30-8.4pt4.2%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $184.4K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 more outcomes
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will SSI release their first model??
- Manifold Markets prices Jul-Dec 2026 at 44% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does When will SSI release their first model? resolve?
- When will SSI release their first model? is scheduled to resolve on September 25, 2026.
- How is When will SSI release their first model? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.