Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.1%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 10:26 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
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PolymarketWeights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SSI release their first model?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Any model counts.
- Image model, TTS model, a main-line GPT model, any model.
- Obviously, if they release weights with randomly initialized values that won't count but besides that, anything goes.
- Could be an open-weights model or a proprietary model or updates to model series (like GPT-6.1)
- The ChatGPT Image 2.5 model released today will not count
Open markets
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt68.6%
- ChatGPT+2.9pt15.2%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.7M
- 24h Vol
- $144.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+36.2pt72.6%
- September 22-17.6pt10.5%
- No release by September 30-8.4pt4.2%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $184.4K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 more outcomes
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI release a new model before October? resolve?
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI release a new model before October? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any model counts.