What are the current odds for When will Canada break apart??

Manifold Markets prices No breakup / none of these years at 66.9% as of October 19, 2026.

When does When will Canada break apart? resolve?

When will Canada break apart? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2045.

EuropeOne-Off18y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No breakup / none of these years 66.9%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 51 minutes ago

Lagging

May 1, 24, 5:28 PM UTCJan 1, 45, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This question will resolve to the time bracket in which a QUALIFYING BREAKUP occurs (or to “No Breakup” if it does not occur).

A QUALIFYING BREAKUP is defined as when a portion of territory currently part of Canada becomes its own independent country.
The country need not be recognized by the United Nations or any other state, but it must have its own system of government (including the exclusive right to levy taxes and spend public money) that stands independent of the current Canadian government.
A QUALIFYING BREAKUP will have been said to occur even if the new state is part of a voluntary association of countries such as the European Union.
A province defying the will of the federal government (i.e. by refusing to remit taxes or enforce federal laws) will not count as a QUALIFYING BREAKUP so long as the jurisdiction has not formally declared independence.
The date of formal independence will be used to determine the appropriate time bracket.