Current community forecast
2029 or later 67.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 26, 5:46 PM UTCMar 15, 28, 5:41 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Devansh have a *liquid* net worth of at least $1M on January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk net worth on December 31, 2026
KalshiElon Musk Net Worth on September 30?
PolymarketMichael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026
KalshiRules
Currently Elon has $830 billion and Bill Gates has $104.8 billion.
- Bill has just over 12.6% of the net worth of Elon Musk.
- If Bill Gates stayed at $105 billion then Elon would need $1.75 trillion.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves based on Forbes' 2026 World Billionaires List and subsequent annual lists.
- As of the 2026 list, Elon Musk has $839 billion and Bill Gates has $108 billion, meaning Gates currently holds approximately 12.9% of Musk's net worth.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes?
- Manifold Markets prices 2029 or later at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes resolve?
- When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2028.
- How is When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Currently Elon has $830 billion and Bill Gates has $104.8 billion.