Current community forecast
Never, or later than 2050. 54.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 3, 23, 2:23 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Context: In the recent Dwarkesh Patel interview, Paul Christiano gave an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere a chance of 15% the named outcome and 40% the named outcome.
- Is this plausible?
- Question: When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?
- Notes: - I will not bet in this market. - Answers will resolve at the date is hit, or we develop AI. - I make rulings on my markets based on the spirit of the question, not the strict rules as written.
