Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Human population will not decrease before 2100 26.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Human population will not decrease before 2100 26.5%Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 24, 1:13 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Which year will the population of humans on January 1st be less than the population of humans on January 1st the year prior for the first time in recorded history?
- This includes all humans not on Earth as well.
- This question doesn't ask when population will peak; human population may well continue to increase the following year.
- Assuming it is still active, https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/ will be used as the reference.
- Population models from the United Nations predict that this may happen within the next hundred years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Population_Prospects.svg Although, a number of reasonable possibilities may break these models.
- An existential risk materializing could make this sooner than expected.
