Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the convention 28.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 22, 25, 1:55 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 2:52 PM UTC
Trends
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves when the ICJ issues its final merits Judgment in Case 192, “Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v.
- Israel).” Source for resolution: the ICJ case page (Judgment document once posted). https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- Exactly one option resolves Yes, using this precedence:
- Genocide — If the Court finds Israel internationally responsible for committing genocide under Article II (by its organs/agents or conduct attributable to the state), this option resolves Yes; all others No. Resolution is based solely on the final Judgment’s dispositive paragraphs. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- the named outcome — If the Court finds any breach other than Article III(c) (e.g., failure to prevent or punish genocide under Article I, complicity Art.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case?
- Manifold Markets prices No genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the convention at 29% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case resolve?
- What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria