Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGuinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) 29.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 7, 26, 5:54 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhich disease will be eradicated next in humans?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Malaria be Eradicated?
Manifold MarketsScrewworm National Emergency declared by which date?
PolymarketNipah virus declared a public health emergency by the WHO in 2026?
FutuurWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.2K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.1K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the next disease declared eradicated by the WHO??
- Manifold Markets prices Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) at 30% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does What will be the next disease declared eradicated by the WHO? resolve?
- What will be the next disease declared eradicated by the WHO? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.