Current community forecast
Fable 5.5 67.5%+47.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+47.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 26, 12:54 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessRules
What version number will Anthropic give its next Claude Fable model (the first Fable newer than Claude Fable 5.1)? Resolves to the answer matching the name Anthropic uses in its official announcement (anthropic.com/news or the Claude model docs) for the first new Fable model made generally available (Claude apps, API or a cloud partner) between market creation and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC. - "the named outcome", "the named outcome", "the named outcome": the exact version number in the official name. - "the named outcome": any other number (5.3, 5.6, 6.5, a date-style name, etc.). - "the named outcome": nothing newer than Fable 5.1 is generally available by the deadline.
- Rumors, leaks, partner-only previews and hidden-routing reports don't count; only a general release does.
- If Anthropic releases two new Fable models on the same day, the lower version number counts.
- I'll resolve as soon as the official announcement is out.
- Context: Fable 5 shipped June 9 and Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026.
- Rumors have used both "5.2" and "5.5" for the next one; neither name appears in any Anthropic document as of Oct 30.
