Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast0.25% to 0.5% 68%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+32.4 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 25, 4:23 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 1.5% in Q4 2026?
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ForecastExRules
This market predicts the annual US population growth rate for 2025.
- According to Census Bureau data, the US population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, the highest growth rate since before the pandemic.
- For January 2025, the Census Bureau projected a growth rate of 0.78% from the previous year.
- However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected slower growth, with an average annual rate of just 0.2% over the next 30 years—less than a quarter of the rate recorded between 1975 and 2024.
- For the 2025-2035 period specifically, CBO projects an average growth rate of 0.4% per year.
- Recent immigration policy changes and declining fertility rates could impact the 2025 growth rate.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US population growth rate for 2025 will be?
- Manifold Markets prices 0.25% to 0.5% at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US population growth rate for 2025 will be resolve?
- US population growth rate for 2025 will be is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is US population growth rate for 2025 will be settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market predicts the annual US population growth rate for 2025.