Current community forecast
Claude (Anthropic) 65.3%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-17.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 25, 11:35 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve based on the official LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard (Overall Category).
- Resolution Value: The market resolves to the Model Family that holds the #1 rank on the leaderboard as of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.
- If the leaderboard has a specific "last updated" timestamp, the update closest to (but not after) the deadline will be used.
- Definition of "Model Family":
- OpenAI: Includes all GPT-4, GPT-5, or subsequent models.
- Anthropic: Includes all Claude 3, 3.5, 4, or subsequent models.