Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.6%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 25, 10:47 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US buys Greenland in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Tesla, Inc. acquires a controlling stake (>50%) in xAI (Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company) on or before December 31, 2026.
- The market resolves NO if no such acquisition occurs by this date.
- [image]Background
- xAI is an artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk in July 2023, focused on developing AI systems that can "understand the true nature of the universe."
- Elon Musk is currently CEO of both Tesla and xAI, creating a connection between the two companies.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $84.6K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $216.2K
- 24h Vol
- $39.2K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.1pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026? resolve?
- Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria