Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast≥$2T 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.6 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 21, 26, 7:10 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2027
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Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2027-12-31.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2027-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
