Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No change (78.5%)
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 2:58 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo change 78.5%+0.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 5:48 AMAug 4, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Increase18%
No change78.5%
Decrease3.6%
78.5%
18%
3.6%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Board meeting scheduled for August 2026, based on the official announcement released by the RBA.
- Increase: Resolves YES if the RBA announces an increase to the official cash rate.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if the RBA announces the cash rate will remain at its current level.
- Decrease: Resolves YES if the RBA announces a reduction to the official cash rate.
- The market will resolve based on the information provided in the RBA's official "Statement by Monetary Policy Decision" issued on the day of the August 2026 meeting, available at https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/.
