Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.6%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 19, 26, 2:55 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Pope Leo XIV physically arrives within the sovereign territory of the Argentine Republic at any time before January 1, 2027, at 00:00 UTC.
- This market resolves to NO if Pope Leo XIV does not visit Argentina prior to that cutoff, including if the planned apostolic journey is cancelled, indefinitely suspended, or rescheduled for 2027 or later.
- The primary source of truth will be official communications from the Holy See Press Office, supplemented by consensus coverage from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Pope Leo XIV scheduled an apostolic journey to Uruguay, Argentina, and Peru for November 6–17, 2026.
- The Argentine itinerary was planned for November 8–11, 2026, featuring events in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Luján.
