What are the current odds for On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born??

Manifold Markets prices South America at 34.1% as of October 20, 2026.

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

South America 34.1%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 45 minutes ago

Lagging

Apr 3, 24, 6:51 PM UTCApr 3, 74, 3:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from the named outcome and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere.

The next several Popes have likely already been born.
In which continent will the first Pope born after 2024-04-03 18:50:00+00 be born?
[image]Respectfully modified from @Bayesian's excellent market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-which-continent-will-the-next-po, in turn respectfully modified from @strutheo's excellent market:
@/strutheo/which-country-will-the-next-pope-fo