Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedUnverified resolution data: August 31 - September 13
Resolved: Sep 4, 2026, 6:57 PM
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 5, 2026, 1:01 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
August 3 - August 163.6%
August 17 - August 300%
August 31 - September 13100%
September 14 - September 300%
October 1 - October 110%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the date when OpenAI officially releases any model in its Astra model family (whether named "GPT-5.6 Astra", "Astra", or another variation) to the public or developers.
- If "Astra" is not specifically named, up to my discretion if the public model was codenamed Astra based on public information.
- Definition of "Release": A release is defined as the model becoming accessible to general end-users (e.g., via ChatGPT Plus, Team, Enterprise, or Free tiers) or to developers via the OpenAI API (including public beta, developer preview, or general availability).
- Closed demonstrations, private alpha tests, or internal-only evaluations do not count.
- On August 1, 2026, OpenAI published a blog post titled "Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science" detailing how an internal version of Astra, which they explicitly called "our next major model," had successfully solved ten long-standing open problems.