OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit?
EquitiesOne-OffAITechBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleDec 26, 24, 1:16 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Market resolves YES if:
- (A) OpenAI conducts a tender offer between 2025-01-01 and 2027-01-01, OR
- (B) employees are allowed to convert their PPUs to cash by some other mechanism (e.g., some magic happening if OpenAI goes public; this would, as one particular case, include employee PPUs getting converted into shares tradeable on the public market),
- the conversion rate is at least $20/unit.
- The "at least $20/unit" is there because I'm also interested in the question of "will OpenAI undergo some type of corporate existence failure" and "PPU value plumetted 90%" is a proxy.
- Resolution based on official company announcements or reliable financial news reporting.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit? resolve?
- OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market resolves YES if: